When is the next general election?

BJP politicians (Vajpayee, and now M M Joshi) have been saying that the next general election is now imminent. They obviously have an vested interest in saying so.

Is it likely?

Good economic conditions will not last. It is better to have elections when the going is good rather than wait for things to go bad. (Ooops, didn't the NDA get a bad outcome from a good decision of this sort?).

Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are very well regarded by the media and the public today. Every day spent with the Left armtwisting the Congress makes the Congress look foolish, it makes the Congress look like they are clinging to power for the sake of power itself. The more weeks of UPA government, the more damage that is done by executing bad policies. I think it's fair to assume that people like Manmohan Singh, P. Chidambaram and Montek Ahluwalia know in their hearts that their policies are bad, and that these are exacting a toll on the economy which will show up sooner or later.

These are all reasons to have elections sooner rather than later. Perhaps an interesting conflict will come up in the next few weeks, and Manmohan Singh will do a Koizumi.

On the other hand, if the UPA keeps going, both Congress and Left continue to earn rents, and `earn a good return' on the sources of election funding that paid for the 2004 campaign. The Congress might be thinking for the long run, and trying to establish credibility as a trusted coalition partner for dinky parties. Vajpayee and Advani are the backbone of the BJP, and they are getting older every day. It makes sense for the Congress to wait it out till they are out of the picture - the second rung features awful characters like Sushma Swaraj, M M Joshi and Uma Bharti. The warfare which will afflict the BJP after Vajpayee and Advani are no longer in charge could throw up opportunities for the Congress to poach some good politicians from the BJP.

I wonder what odds the bookies have on this one!

It is said of OPEC that their task is to keep oil prices high enough to hurt, but not high enough to make consumers seek alternatives. Similarly, the Left has the puzzle of inflicting the maximal pain on the Congress but not enough pain to provoke the next election. The Left has got a fantastic deal - for the first time in independent India's history, they are almost in charge at the Centre. They have the sweet pleasure of watching Manmohan Singh, P. Chidambaram and Montek Ahluwalia having to stand in front of the media and defend Left policies. It will never get as good as this for them again. It is in their interest to prolong the agony, take as much as they can, but not push the Congress to elections. Which again, brings back the question: When will Manmohan Singh do a Koizumi?